03/04/2016
In the past week, there was an important event which was not reminded in economic calendar:"Speech:Adjusting to the Fall in Commodity Prices: One Step at a Time" presented by the Lynn Patterson - Deputy Governor Edmonton Chamber of Commerce on 30/03/2016. This speech was mindful that the economy faced the challenges of commodity price falling down, and took time to adjust large negative shock in this economy. Although Canadian releases positive GDP growth in the past week, the trend of CAD in this week is still being observed unitl monday, and especially the impact of BoC speech largely determines the overall trend of this week! As pointed out in the past economic report, implementing negative bank interest rate by BoJ mainly aimed to ascend the low inflation and spend the over-abundant monetary base in market. From Feb, the Japan Monetary Base constantly decreased from 37.4% to 29%. However, as an un-expected consequence of this, the CPI had no apparent improvement in the last releasing, which reflected that Japanese consumers did not spend the over-abundant money on consumption, and did not contribute to the GDP growth as their target. Where has the decreased money flowed to ? Perhaps leaving to oversea market, which is not a good news. Seemingly the effectiveness of implementing negative bank interest rate is still vague. I am afraid that the majarity of Japanese people have been not benifited from this monetary policy, so that the expectation of GDP growth is not so optimistic. The economic indicator ofJapan Monetary Base is the key to judge the overall trend of JPY in thi s week. As pointed out in the past economic report, implementing negative bank interest rate by BoJ mainly aimed to ascend the low inflation and spend the over-abundant monetary base in market. From Feb, the Japan Monetary Base constantly decreased from 37.4% to 29%. However, as an un-expected consequence of this, the CPI had no apparent improvement in the last releasing, which reflected that Japanese consumers did not spend the over-abundant money on consumption, and did not contribute to the GDP growth as their target. Where has the decreased money flowed to ? Perhaps leaving to oversea market, which is not a good news. Seemingly the effectiveness of implementing negative bank interest rate is still vague. I am afraid that the majarity of Japanese people have been not benifited from this monetary policy, so that the expectation of GDP growth is not so optimistic. The economic indicator ofJapan Monetary Base is the key to judge the overall trend of JPY in thi s week.
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